Aggregating Human Judgment Probabilistic Predictions of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission, Burden, and Preventive Measures

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Abstract

Aggregated human judgment forecasts for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) targets of public health importance are accurate, often outperforming computational models. Our work shows that aggregated human judgment forecasts for infectious agents are timely, accurate, and adaptable, and can be used as a tool to aid public health decision making during outbreaks.

Citation

@article{10.1093/ofid/ofac354,
    author = {Codi, Allison and Luk, Damon and Braun, David and Cambeiro, Juan and Besiroglu, Tamay and Chen, Eva and de Cesaris, Luis Enrique Urtubey and Bocchini, Paolo and McAndrew, Thomas},
    title = {Aggregating Human Judgment Probabilistic Predictions of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission, Burden, and Preventive Measures},
    journal = {Open Forum Infectious Diseases},
    volume = {9},
    number = {8},
    pages = {ofac354},
    year = {2022},
    month = {07},
    issn = {2328-8957},
    doi = {10.1093/ofid/ofac354},
    url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/ofid/ofac354},
    eprint = {https://academic.oup.com/ofid/article-pdf/9/8/ofac354/45227628/ofac354.pdf}
}