Early human judgment forecasts of human monkeypox, May 2022

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Abstract

We present an ongoing human judgment effort in collaboration with Metaculus—a forecasting technology platform—to make crowdsourced ensemble predictions of (1) the estimated number of reported human monkeypox infections globally as of Dec 31, 2022, (2) the estimated number of deaths due to human monkeypox globally as of Dec 31, 2022, (3) the number of monkeypox cases reported across Europe as of July 1, 2022, (4) the number of monkeypox cases reported in the USA as of July 1, 2022, (5) the number of monkeypox cases reported in Canada as of July 1, 2022, (6) the number of countries that will report at least one case of human monkeypox by July 31, 2022, (7) the number of US states that will report at least one case by July 1, 2022, and (8) whether WHO will declare the monkeypox outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before Dec 31, 2022.

Citation

McAndrew, Thomas, et al. “Early human judgment forecasts of human monkeypox, May 2022.” The Lancet Digital Health 4.8 (2022): e569-e571.

@article{mcandrew2022early,
  title={Early human judgment forecasts of human monkeypox, May 2022},
  author={McAndrew, Thomas and Majumder, Maimuna S and Lover, Andrew A and Venkatramanan, Srini and Bocchini, Paolo and Besiroglu, Tamay and Codi, Allison and Braun, David and Dempsey, Gaia and Abbott, Sam and others},
  journal={The Lancet Digital Health},
  volume={4},
  number={8},
  pages={e569--e571},
  year={2022},
  publisher={Elsevier}
}