Covid19

Aggregating Human Judgment Probabilistic Predictions of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission, Burden, and Preventive Measures

Our work shows that aggregated human judgment forecasts for infectious agents are timely, accurate, and adaptable, and can be used as a tool to aid public health decision making during outbreaks.

Aggregating probabilistic predictions of the safety, efficacy, and timing of a COVID-19 vaccine

To support public health decision making, we solicited trained forecasters and experts in vaccinology and infectious disease to provide monthly probabilistic predictions from July to September of 2020 of the efficacy, safety, timing, and delivery of a COVID-19 vaccine.