Ensemble

A Cluster-Aggregate-Pool (CAP) Ensemble Algorithm for Improved Forecast Performance of influenza-like illness

We propose a novel Cluster-Aggregate-Pool or `CAP’ ensemble algorithm that first clusters together individual forecasts, aggregates individual models that belong to the same cluster into a single forecast (called a cluster forecast), and then pools together cluster forecasts via a linear pool.

Adaptively stacking ensembles for influenza forecasting with incomplete data

Needing no data at the beginning of an epidemic, an adaptive ensemble can quickly train and forecast an outbreak, providing a practical tool to public health officials looking for a forecast to conform to unique features of a specific season.