Human Judgment

Chimeric Forecasting: An experiment to leverage human judgment to improve forecasts of infectious disease using simulated surveillance data

We presented 3000 humans with simulated surveillance data about the number of incident hospitalizations from a current and two past seasons, and asked that they predict the peak time and intensity of the underlying epidemic

Assessing Human Judgment Forecasts in the Rapid Spread of the Mpox Outbreak: Insights and Challenges for Pandemic Preparedness

We collected – between May 19, 2022 and July 31, 2022 – 1275 forecasts from 442 individuals of six questions about the mpox outbreak where ground truth data are now available. Individual human judgment forecasts and an equally weighted ensemble were evaluated, as well as compared to a random walk, autoregressive, and doubling time model.

Early human judgment forecasts of human monkeypox, May 2022

These results suggest that a human judgment forecasting platform can quickly generate probabilistic predictions for targets of public health importance

Aggregating Human Judgment Probabilistic Predictions of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission, Burden, and Preventive Measures

Our work shows that aggregated human judgment forecasts for infectious agents are timely, accurate, and adaptable, and can be used as a tool to aid public health decision making during outbreaks.

Aggregating probabilistic predictions of the safety, efficacy, and timing of a COVID-19 vaccine

To support public health decision making, we solicited trained forecasters and experts in vaccinology and infectious disease to provide monthly probabilistic predictions from July to September of 2020 of the efficacy, safety, timing, and delivery of a COVID-19 vaccine.

tom mcandrew (pi)

Principal Investigator; applied math, stats, human judgment, forecasting, infectious diseases