Mpox

We collected – between May 19, 2022 and July 31, 2022 – 1275 forecasts from 442 individuals of six questions about the mpox outbreak where ground truth data are now available. Individual human judgment forecasts and an equally weighted ensemble were evaluated, as well as compared to a random walk, autoregressive, and doubling time model.

These results suggest that a human judgment forecasting platform can quickly generate probabilistic predictions for targets of public health importance