An expert judgment model to predict early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States

Compared to fixed effect models, random effects suffer lower bias and trade inflated type I errors for improved power. Contrasting hazard rates between trials prevent accurate estimates from both fixed and random effects models.

January 2019 · tom mcandrew

Reply & Supply: Efficient crowdsourcing when workers do more than answer questions

By modeling question sets as networks of interrelated questions, we introduce algorithms to help curtail the growth bias by efficiently distributing workers between exploring new questions and addressing current questions.

August 2017 · Thomas C McAndrew, Elizaveta A Guseva, James P Bagrow